WASHINGTON — While NASA is pushing ahead with a crewed moon landing during the Artemis 3 mission in September 2026, the agency’s own analysis estimates there is a nearly one-in-three chance that the lander will be at least a year and a half late.
That review grew out of a confirmation review for the Human Landing System (HLS) Initial Capability project, which supports the development of SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander that will be used on Artemis 3. The confirmation review, known in agency terminology as Key Decision Point (KDP) C, establishes cost and schedule commitments for NASA projects.
The confirmation review, which took place in December 2023, established a schedule baseline of February 2028 for that project with a collective confidence level of 70%. That means there is a 70% chance that Starship will be ready for a lunar landing — a milestone formally known as a lunar orbit checkout review — in February 2028.
“The joint cost and schedule confidence level is an integrated analysis of a project’s costs, schedule, risks, and uncertainty that indicates the likelihood that a project will meet a given set of cost and schedule objectives,” the Government Accountability Office said in a June 20 report assessing major NASA programs.
That date is nearly a year and a half after NASA’s current September 2026 schedule for Artemis 3. The 70% aggregate confidence level also means the agency believes there’s a 30% chance the Starship lander won’t be ready until after February 2028.
The confirmation review, which was not widely publicized by NASA when it was completed, was cited in the GAO report. It noted that the planning review is independent of the readiness of other aspects of the mission, such as the Space Launch System, the Orion spacecraft and the new lunar spacesuits.
In a statement to SpaceNews, NASA confirmed the dates cited in the GAO report while reiterating that Artemis 3 remains on track for September 2026. “The GAO report’s cost and schedule baselines are precise, risk-based estimates at the 70% joint confidence level (JCL). The agency’s use of a 70% JCL to inform baseline estimates is a conservative approach that assumes broad risk realization,” the report said.
“NASA continues to have confidence in SpaceX as a supplier to help deliver the Artemis III mission,” the statement said.
The KDP-C also established a cost of $4.9 billion for HLS Initial Capability at the same 70% joint confidence level. This includes the $2.9 billion fixed-price contract with SpaceX, awards to SpaceX, Blue Origin and Dynetics in the earlier phase of the project, and NASA project office costs.
Cathy Koerner, NASA associate administrator for exploration systems development, reiterated the 2026 target for Artemis 3 during a June 7 meeting of the National Academies’ Space Studies Board. That meeting came a day after the fourth integrated test flight of Starship and its Super Heavy booster.
“From the status of a Human Landing System project, SpaceX continues to make great progress,” she said, referring to the final flight and other work such as an integrated test of the elevator astronauts will use to descend from the Starship cabin to the surface.
However, she noted that the HLS effort faces “many technical challenges.” The next major milestone, she said, was an in-space cryogenic fuel transfer test, which she said was scheduled for early 2025.
The GAO report also emphasized the importance of that test. During the confirmation review, a standing review board “recommended that SpaceX’s in-space fuel transfer testing would impact the program’s critical design review, currently scheduled for 2025.”
At the Space Studies Board meeting, Koerner downplayed reports that NASA was considering an alternative plan to test Starship and Orion in low Earth orbit, similar to the Apollo 9 mission. He did, however, acknowledge that the agency was considering contingencies.
She said NASA has done a lot of “next-worse failure” assessments, looking at what would happen if an element of the mission were unavailable. “We always do those kinds of backup plans,” she said. “We haven’t made any changes to the current plan as I’ve outlined it here today, but we have a lot of people looking at a lot of backup plans so that we’re doing due diligence.”