We’ve enjoyed a number of celestial spectacles in recent years – from total solar eclipses to stunning auroras – and yet Earth will soon witness a space event that will trump them all.
In the next five years we will be treated to a visit from asteroid 99942 Apophis and it will come close enough to be seen with the naked eye.
The upcoming flight is so special that the European Space Agency (ESA) has hailed it as “one of the rarest space events of our lifetimes.”
“Scientists believe that an asteroid the size of Apophis will only come this close to Earth once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” the ESA added in a Twitter/X post.
The specialness of this event is due both to the asteroid’s proximity to Earth and its impressive size.
The space rock is about 375 meters (1,230 feet) in diameter, making it a substantial rocket.
Images of Apophis taken in three wavelengths(ESAHerschel/PACS/MACH-11/MPE/B.Altieri (ESAC) and C. Kiss (Konkoly Observatory))
Apophis was first discovered in 2004, after which experts placed it at level 2 on the Torino impact hazard scale.
According to this index, a score of 0 means that the probability of an impact on our planet is more or less zero, while 10 means that a collision is “certain” and “capable of causing a global climate catastrophe that will threaten the future of can threaten civilization while we know it, be it land or ocean.”
So while Level 2 is low – that is, objects that make a “somewhat short but not very unusual pass by the Earth” – it is not low enough to ignore its potential risks.
And indeed, the December 2004 observations put the asteroid at level 4 on the Turin scale, increasing the chance of it hitting Earth in 2029 to 1.6 percent.
And if one percent doesn’t sound too scary, consider that, according to NASA calculations, a one percent chance of a collision means an object is still capable of causing “regional devastation.”
Over the years that space agency professionals have been hunting and monitoring Near Earth Objects (NEOs), no object has surpassed a level 4 on the Torino scale.
And its potential threat to Earth even earned the asteroid the name Apophis, in honor of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and disorder.
The good news is that NASA has since emphasized that “new telescopic observations will most likely lead to [Apophis’s] reassigned to level 0.”
And while we will see a number of encounters with the asteroid in the coming years, collisions in 2029, 2036 and 2068 are out of the question.
“A 2068 impact is no longer a possibility,” Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies said in a statement, adding: “Our calculations do not show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years. “
Still, Apophis will come extremely close in 2029, within 32,000 km (20,000 miles) of Earth’s surface – which is closer than some of our man-made satellites.
It will be so close that it should be visible from the Eastern Hemisphere without the aid of a telescope or binoculars. IFL Science notes.
During the approach, NASA plans to visit the asteroid using its OSIRIS APEX asteroid sampler.
“Our planet’s gravity is expected to alter the asteroid’s orbit, changing how and how fast it spins on its axis, and possibly causing earthquakes or landslides that will alter its surface,” NASA said of the proposed mission. “OSIRIS-APEX will allow scientists on Earth to observe these changes.
“In addition, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will dive to the surface of Apophis – a ‘rocky’ asteroid made of silicate (or rocky) material and a mixture of metallic nickel and iron – and fire its engines to shoot up loose rocks and dust , it continued.
“This maneuver will give scientists a glimpse into the composition of material just beneath the asteroid’s surface.”
The ESA also hopes to visit the asteroid, noting that studying the flyby will help better equip us against possible future collisions with similar objects.
“Earth’s gravity will ‘stretch’ and ‘squeeze’ Apophis, causing landslides and revealing much about the asteroid’s material, structure, density and cohesion,” the space agency said.
“This knowledge will help us protect the Earth in the future.”
Still, on this occasion it is nice to know that the asteroid does not pose a threat, but is just a rare and beautiful sight.
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