Boeing’s days in space may be numbered. And SpaceX may have become NASA’s new favorite space contractor.
The International Space Station (ISS) orbits the Earth at an altitude of 400 kilometers. That doesn’t sound like much. You can drive 250 miles in about four hours in a cheap sedan or take a one-hour flight (if that).
It’s occupied Boeing (BA 0.15%) five year however, to reach the ISS. And when they finally arrived, they discovered that SpaceX had already arrived there four years ago.
Third time’s the charm?
Boeing’s first attempt to launch a Starliner spacecraft to the ISS in 2019 ended in failure when an error in the onboard clock caused the spacecraft to fire its engines at the wrong time, putting it on an incorrect course and the spacecraft eventually had to return to the ISS. Earth without ever reaching its goal.
Three years later, Boeing made its second attempt to reach the ISS – Orbital Flight Test 2 – and despite some bugs encountered along the way, it managed to dock the unmanned capsule with its target and then return it to Earth.
Earlier this month, it was time for Boeing to try again, this time with astronauts on board. On June 5, Boeing launched its Crew Flight Test mission. On June 6, Starliner docked with the ISS again.
With caveats.
Even before Starliner departed Cape Canaveral, problems were apparent in the form of sticky valves and a persistent helium leak that delayed the launch by about a month. By the time Starliner arrived at the ISS, the spacecraft was beginning to resemble cosmic Swiss cheese, with three separate leaks in the propulsion system and at least four thrusters malfunctioning. Two more leaks have been discovered since the docking.
NASA has postponed Starliner’s departure for its return flight to Earth twice, with the latest target date being June 25, without giving a specific reason – although I think we can guess.
Teams of @NASA And @BoeingSpace target June 25 NET 10:10 PM ET for disconnecting the #Starliner spacecraft of @Space stationwhich landed early June 26 at White Sands Space Harbor in New Mexico.
More: https://t.co/QouNVM58Jq pic.twitter.com/HzF2KW7rPc
— NASA Commercial Crew (@Commercial_Crew) June 18, 2024
Unconfirmed media reports say that NASA is now considering the possible need to organize a ‘rescue mission’ to retrieve its astronauts in the event that the capsule is deemed unsafe for travel.
Make it even worse
Whether things deteriorate to that point remains to be seen, but Starliner’s failures have combined to further damage Boeing’s already tarnished reputation for quality. And that reputation looks all the worse when you compare it to the stellar performance of SpaceX, Boeing’s rival on the Commercial Crew Transportation contract that transports astronauts to and from the ISS — and the likely supplier of a spacecraft for any possible rescue mission.
Boeing and SpaceX first won Commercial Crew contracts in 2014, with Boeing receiving 61.5% more money for his work because it was considered the more reliable company. Since then, SpaceX has sent astronauts to the ISS ten times without incident on its Crew Dragon capsule, compared to Boeing’s record of zero times without incident (or perhaps once with a lot of of incidents). If NASA needs to conduct a rescue mission, it’s pretty clear which spacecraft it will use.
And even if no rescue is needed, Boeing only SpaceX knows would NASA’s favorite savior must have stung a bit.
In the best case
However, we’ll keep our fingers crossed and hope that everything works out for Starliner in the end. So what?
As Payload Space reminds us, Starliner’s mission to the ISS is still just a test flight. The spacecraft has not yet been ‘certified’ for operational (i.e. regular) use, nor will it be are certified until Boeing goes through the design with a fine-tooth comb, figures out what’s going wrong with the leaky ship and the glitching space jets, and fixes it all.
After that, Boeing had to fulfill another contract and fly six crewed operational missions to receive the $4.2 billion it was awarded in the original Commercial Crew contract.
With six years to go before the ISS is retired, and NASA crews flying to the ISS about twice a year, Boeing still has time to claim the money – but only if it moves quickly to iron the bugs out of Starliner to remedy. And beyond 2030, when ISS retires, it’s still unclear what use might be found for Starliner.
Somehow I’m afraid this spaceship’s days are numbered. And Boeing could be out of the human-rated space race for good.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.