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European gas imports from Russia surpassed deliveries from the US in May for the first time in almost two years, despite the region’s efforts to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels since the massive invasion of Ukraine.
While one-off factors have driven the turnaround, it highlights the difficulty of further reducing Europe’s dependence on gas from Russia, with several Eastern European countries still dependent on imports from their neighbors.
“It is striking to see the market share of Russian gas [liquefied natural gas] centimeter higher in Europe after everything we have been through and all the efforts made to decouple and reduce the risks of energy supply,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analysis at consultancy ICIS.
Following the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow cut pipeline gas supplies to Europe and the region increased imports of LNG, which is shipped on specialized ships, with the US as a major supplier.
The US overtook Russia as a gas supplier to Europe in September 2022 and has accounted for about a fifth of the region’s gas supply since 2023.
But last month, gas and LNG shipments via Russian pipelines accounted for 15 percent of total supplies to the EU, the UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, according to ICIS data.
US LNG accounted for 14 percent of supplies to the region, the lowest level since August 2022, ICIS data showed.
The reversal comes amid a general increase in European imports of Russian LNG, despite several EU countries pushing for sanctions to be imposed on them.
Russia stopped sending gas through pipelines connecting the country to northwestern Europe in mid-2022, but continues to supply gas through pipelines through Ukraine and Turkey.
May flows were affected by one-off factors, including an outage at a major US LNG export facility, while Russia sent more gas through Turkey ahead of planned maintenance in June. Gas demand in Europe also remains relatively weak, with storage levels near record highs for this time of year.
The turnaround would “probably not last,” ICIS’s Marzec-Manser said, as Russia could ship LNG to Asia via the Northern Sea Route in the summer. That would likely reduce the amount sent to Europe, while U.S. LNG production had increased again, he said.
“Russia has limited flexibility to maintain this share [in Europe] as question [for gas] will increase this coming winter, while overall U.S. LNG production only grows and more new capacity enters the global market by the end of the year,” he added.
The transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia is also due to expire this year, endangering flows through the route.
The European Commission supports efforts to establish an investment plan to expand pipeline capacity in the Southern Gas Corridor between the EU and Azerbaijan.
A senior EU official said supplies through the route are currently not sufficient to replace the 14 billion cubic meters of Russian gas that currently flows annually to the EU via Ukraine.
The EU’s energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, said she had raised concerns during a trip to Japan this month about LNG being diverted from Europe to meet demand in Asia.
She said Tokyo and Brussels had set up an “early warning system” to monitor LNG shortages and agreed that both should pursue energy-saving measures.
“The EU stands ready to buffer any negative supply or demand events in global gas markets,” she added. “Our gas storage remains at record levels [and] our gas demand stabilized at a record low level, a decline of 20 percent compared to 2021.”