When we think of unexpected events, asteroid impacts are usually pretty low on the list. After all, it is highly unlikely that a large asteroid will hit Earth in the near future.
Given the potential catastrophic damage such an event could cause, NASA experts have made preparing for this distant possibility a priority.
Every two years, a special branch of NASA, the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), hosts a hypothetical exercise in which scientists and policymakers simulate an asteroid impact scenario.
The purpose of these exercises, which involve both federal and international agencies, is to address the uncertainties surrounding an asteroid impact.
Great schemers of disaster preparation
CNEOS, based in Southern California, has played a key role in formulating these disaster management exercises for more than a decade.
These specialists are charged with the crucial task of detecting and classifying asteroids and comets, as well as identifying potential threats to Earth.
Paul Chodas, director of CNEOS, explains how precise these exercises are.
“These hypothetical scenarios are complex and require a lot of effort to design. Our goal is to make them useful and challenging for exercise participants and decision makers,” he explains.
By refining their processes and procedures, the team will be better equipped to formulate an effective plan of action in the event of actual threats, thereby filling any gaps in the knowledge of the planetary defense community.
Earth-Asteroid Impact Scenario
This year’s simulation brought the “what ifs” into alarming focus. The team imagined a hypothetical asteroid of significant size and calculated a 72% chance that it would hit Earth within 14 years.
Possible impact sites included densely populated areas in North America, southern Europe, and northern Africa. However, there was also a significant 28% chance that the asteroid would miss Earth entirely.
Once the asteroid was near the sun, it was deemed impossible to continue observing the asteroid for the next seven months, leaving decision makers in a quandary about what to do next.
“This was a very successful tabletop exercise, with nearly 100 participants from U.S. government agencies and, for the first time, international experts in planetary defense,” said Terik Daly of APL, who coordinated the exercise.
“An asteroid impact would have serious national and international consequences. If this scenario were to become reality, we would need international cooperation.”
Global team takes clues from reality
These simulations are a joint endeavor. Participants include NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), the Federal Emergency Management Agency Response Directorate (FEMA Response), and the Department of State Office of Space Affairs.
Earlier this year, nearly 100 participants from various U.S. government agencies gathered in Laurel, Maryland, at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL).
For the first time, the event also featured international experts in planetary defense, underscoring the need for global cooperation in addressing such potential crises.
To make the scenario more realistic, the CNEOS team simulated all observations prior to the exercise.
“At that point, the impact was likely but not certain, and there were significant uncertainties about the size of the object and the impact location,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS who led the design of the asteroid’s orbit.
“It was interesting to see how this influenced the choices of decision makers and how the international community might respond to a real threat in 14 years.”
Shields up: averting potential disasters
One of the notable scientists pioneering asteroid deflection missions is the team behind the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART).
This mission was a huge success and laid the foundation for future attempts to deflect asteroids.
The process behind this, however, is not as simple as playing cosmic billiards. It takes years of preparation and planning, and requires advanced observatories that can detect dangerous asteroids as early as possible.
The Near-Earth Object Surveyor (NEOS), an infrared space telescope scheduled for launch in late 2027, will play a key role in accomplishing this mission.
Previous lessons and future preparations
Let’s face it. The idea of asteroid impacts may sound like a plotline straight out of a blockbuster movie script. But the effects of such celestial encounters are very real and potentially devastating.
The Tunguska event of 1908 serves as a grim reminder. A small asteroid exploded over Siberia, destroying about 80 million trees over an area of 800 square miles.
In 2013, Russia was hit by the Chelyabinsk meteor. The shock wave caused many injuries and material damage.
Given past events and the potential risks they pose, NASA is taking a comprehensive approach that includes both proactive and reactive strategies.
Proactively, missions like DART are integral to developing techniques to alter an asteroid’s course. Infrared space telescopes like the Near-Earth Object Surveyor aim to spot and classify potentially dangerous objects long before they pose a threat.
In response, NASA has initiated emergency response exercises to ensure global coordination and rapid decision-making processes.
Protecting Earth from Asteroids
NASA’s asteroid impact drills are a painful reminder of the potential dangers lurking in the cosmos.
These exercises simulate scenarios in which an asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, challenging scientists to develop effective strategies to deflect or mitigate the impact.
However, they also highlight our ability to strategize, collaborate, and deploy advanced technology in the face of such dangers.
By bringing together experts from diverse fields, from astronomy to engineering, these exercises stimulate innovation and preparedness.
Do you feel safer now that you know what measures have been taken?
Let us remain vigilant, because as the saying goes, “Forewarned is forearmed.” Every step we take today can be crucial in protecting our planet tomorrow.
The next time you look up at the night sky, think of the unsung heroes of space who work tirelessly to protect our planet. Because as we have learned, the best offense can often be a great defense.
For the outcome of the exercise, please read NASA’s preliminary summary.
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