New report warns staple food prices could soar by 2030

The pandemic, rising interest rates and geopolitical conflict have caused the price of many British staples, including olive oil, baked beans and granulated sugar, to rise dramatically. A new study has outlined where prices could head in the coming years.

Which products are expected to be the most expensive in 2030?

According to online shopping platform BravoVoucher, olive oil is expected to be one of the most affected products by 2030, with its price increasing by 113.8% between 2019 and 2024 (to £8.04 in March 2024) for a 500ml and 1-litre bottle.

BravoVoucher now estimates that if inflation remains unchanged, olive oil prices could potentially rise to around £17.19 by 2030. However, if inflation falls to 2% by the end of the decade, olive oil prices could rise relatively more quietly, reaching almost £9.05 by 2030.

Olive oil prices continue to be heavily influenced by the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, mainly due to the Houthis’ attacks on container and cargo ships in the Red Sea. These attacks have caused significant disruption to oil supply routes and supplies in the UK, but also elsewhere in the world.

Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia are among the world’s largest producers of olive oil. However, rising temperatures across Europe, particularly in southern Europe, leading to droughts, low rainfall and a warmer than expected winter in 2023-2024 have all contributed to poor olive harvests in recent times. This has also kept olive oil prices consistently high.

Baked bean prices have also risen, with the staple seeing a 70.5% increase between 2019 and 2024, to £1.04 per 400-425g tin. There could be more to come, however, with the breakfast favourite potentially costing around £1.17 by 2030 – if plans to curb inflation go well. If not, consumers could be looking at around £1.77 per tin.

Baked bean prices have risen in recent years, particularly as producers such as Heinz have raised prices to increase unit profitability, a move that some critics have condemned as fueling “greedflation.” Similar to shrinkage inflationGreedflation occurs when companies deliberately keep product prices high, even in a scenario of high living costs or high inflation, to maximize profits.

Another key ingredient, granulated white sugar, could also become much more expensive over time, with prices already skyrocketing to £1.19 per kg by March 2024, a 67.6% increase. By 2030, if UK inflation falls to 2%, granulated white sugar could see a small increase to around £1.34, but if it doesn’t, a kilo could cost £1.99 by then.

Sugar prices have been rising recently mainly because producers are facing higher energy bills. Sugar cane production, especially for products such as ethanol, sugar and molasses, is a very energy-intensive process.

In addition, prices are under pressure from higher fertilizer costs and poor harvests in major sugar-producing countries such as India, due to drought and unusual rainfall.

This also has consequences for other products, such as biscuits, chocolate and other sweet treats, in which sugar and sugar products are an important ingredient.

Mineral water could also be left out of many shopping baskets by 2030, if inflation continues, as prices could reach around £1.74 per bottle. In a more optimistic inflation scenario, prices could be closer to £1.17, up slightly from £1.04 per bottle in 2024. Mineral water has already seen a 67.7% price increase over the past five years.

Bottled water prices have been rising recently due to the increase in oil and chemical prices. This is because water treatment plants require significant amounts of fuel and chemicals such as activated carbon, aluminum sulfate, and ammonia, among others, to process the water.

However, the role of fuel in bottled water production is not limited to just the core water treatment activities. A significant amount of petroleum is also required to produce the plastic bottles. With the rising prices of petrol and diesel, transportation costs have also increased, resulting in all these cost burdens being passed on to the consumer.

Similarly, plain biscuits could quickly become unaffordable for many, expected to cost around £1.52 per 200-300g pack by 2030 if inflation is on track, but around £2.25 per pack if it isn’t. This is largely due to the rising cost of ingredients such as sugar and flour.

Cheese and chicken are also likely to increase in price

Consumers could also see cornflakes become more expensive, with semi-skimmed milk prices expected to rise to around £1.83 for two pints by 2030 if inflation is not brought under control. If prices fall, two pints are likely to cost £1.40.

You could also find yourself paying somewhere between £9.85 and £11.10 for your choice of cheddar cheese by the end of the decade, depending on the direction of inflation.

Fresh and chilled whole chicken is also expected to become more expensive, at £5.31 per kg if inflation continues as it is now. Otherwise, a kg could cost £4.31.

Furthermore, broccoli could see a significant price increase to £3.32 per kg in 2030, up from £2.50 per kg in 2024, if inflation does not fall. If it does, a kg of broccoli is likely to cost around £2.82.

Parents may also have to spend more on powdered baby formula, with a pack expected to cost between £13.44 and £14.97 by the end of the decade.

How the data was collected

The latest report was based on a last research using data from the Office for National Statistics, with the platform examining food price inflation for basic commodities from 2019 to 2024.

The 2030 forecasts were divided into two sets: one sees UK inflation returning to the Bank of England’s 2% target by 2030, and the other likely to apply if inflation remains at current levels and does not decline.

Marco Farnararo, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Co-Founder of BravoVoucher said: “This research provides a frightening glimpse into the future of food prices if current inflationary trends continue. The dramatic rise we have seen in prices of everyday essentials such as olive oil and baked beans is particularly worrying. It highlights the urgent need for effective economic policies to stabilise inflation and protect consumers.

“With food prices continuing to rise, there are steps shoppers can take to cut costs. For example, taking advantage of in-store deals or vouchers can help to reduce prices, but don’t be tempted to buy unnecessary items just because they’re on sale. It’s also important to keep track of what you already have before you go shopping to avoid unnecessary extra spending.”