- The prospects for an altcoin season continue to decline as TOTAL2’s market cap remains out of reach for BTC.
- Although some analysts see a buying opportunity, the market trend seems to indicate that this is still a long way off.
For months, analysts have thought that altcoin season is near. But in that time, those predictions have not come true. Once again, the same speculation is circulating after the [BTC] The price fell to its lowest level in two months.
Altcoin season, popularly called alt season, refers to a cycle in which other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To validate this market phase, at least 75% of the top 50 alts by market cap must outperform the number one cryptocurrency.
But this cycle, many of these cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has led the rise and fall of the broader crypto market.
Will Alts Overtake Bitcoin Later?
A technical indicator that says “yes” or “no” to the season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies on the market, except BTC.
When this indicator jumps, it lends credence to the possibility of an approaching alt season. But a noticeable drop suggests otherwise.
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, TOTAL2’s market cap was $960.23 billion at the time of publication. Over the past six months, this was an increase of 25.63%. However, the last 30 days through the last 24 hours have been terrible.
Source: TradingView
Notably, the value has dropped by 15.08% in the past month and by 4.13% in the past seven days. Given the current state, it is fair to say that altcoins will not see any respite anytime soon.
However, if the value increases and gets closer to a market cap of $1 trillion, the chances of an overall price increase may increase.
According to some analysts, memes are the frontrunners
Meanwhile, several analysts have commented on the potential performance of these coins. For example, Murad, an analyst at X, opined that memecoins will lead the rally, whether altcoin season comes or not.
In his post, Murad noted the following:
“If there is an Alt Season, Memes will outperform Alts. If there is no Alt Season, Memes will outperform Alts.”
Considering the performance of cryptos this year, one cannot deny that his opinion could be valid. This is because meme coins like Pepe [PEPE]bonk [BONK]Flakes [FLOKI]and many others have outperformed many other altcoins.
If this continues as the market recovers, Murad’s position would be validated. Another pseudonymous trader, Mister Crypto, did not give his preference.
However, on July 1, he noted that the price drop presented a rare buying opportunity. He wrote,
“Honestly, so many Altcoin charts look like great buys right now. Most will easily go up 30x.”
The role of ETH has not come into play
While these predictions are dependent on market conditions, there were others who looked at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows whether Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum [ETH] or it’s the other way around.
Historically, when ETH beats BTC at its game, it gives altcoins a chance to outperform the king coin. But when BTC leads, altcoin season gets tough to find.
At the time of going to press, AMBCrypto noted that the ETH/BTC chart had dropped to 0.054. This was a 1.62% drop in the last seven days. A few days ago, the price was 0.056.
Source: TradingView
But the recent value means that 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If this improves, the altcoin season will improve. If not, the market phase could be delayed.
In the meantime, the broader market may be waiting for spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading before getting confirmation of an altcoin season.
Realistic or not, this is the market cap of ETH in BTC terms
Although the event was initially predicted to begin on July 2, expectations have now shifted to the 8th.
If ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s performance after its own approval in January, that would be great for altcoins. If not, altcoin season may still be a long way off.