Apple’s Vision Pro is great, but no one wants one

After much anticipation and fanfare, Apple released its contribution to the mixed reality headset market in February 2024. The Vision Pro is without a doubt a remarkable technological achievement. Apple believed that this was the product that would give the company a dominant position in spatial computing: the merging of the physical and digital worlds. However, the market has not embraced the Vision Pro, and recent news from Apple suggests that they are rethinking their roadmap. What happened to Apple’s dream of mass adoption of spatial computing, and what can we learn from it?

At first the experience is nothing short of wow

Spend 30 minutes in an Apple Store experiencing their Vision Pro demonstration and it’s clear it’s a computing and engineering marvel. The specifications are fantastic: two OLED screens with 23 million pixels, 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones and an M2 chip. Oof!

Apple has packed a lot into such a small size and the sensory experience exceeds expectations. For example, in the demo a user is transported to a practice room with Alicia Keys and her band, and it feels and sounds almost magical. This alone is worth the 30 minute demo.

By using the Vision Pro as a computer, the user can open multiple virtual screens of their favorite applications. These screens appear to float in front of the user and each screen can be easily zoomed in and out. Interaction includes special hand gestures such as pinching and dragging and many actions involve eye movements.

Interacting with the device is engaging, feels familiar to the Apple user interface, and the execution of every action feels natural and responsive.

Is there a market for spatial computing today?

Apple’s gamble was that this rich, immersive, virtual experience would represent the next-generation computing platform, and with their reputation for design and user-friendly functionality, they would quickly establish themselves as a leader. Despite a phenomenal track record of product success, Apple missed the mark with this headline-grabbing release. What exactly did they do wrong?

Apple’s Vision Pro wasn’t the first in this category. Certainly not. The first head-mounted displays for computing and virtual reality (VR), also called VR headsets, date from the 1960s.

More recently, in 2016, Sony released their PlayStation VR headsets and in 2018 Meta entered the market with Oculus Go. Although largely focused on the gaming market, both Sony and Meta have had reasonable success, with 5 and 20 million units sold respectively to date. Recently, sales have slowed significantly, with Sony even halting production as current inventory dwindles.

Microsoft’s foray into VR with the critically acclaimed HoloLens had limited success in a business context, but ultimately ended its mixed reality efforts in 2023.

Leaders like Sony, Meta and Microsoft, despite all their resources and marketing efforts, discovered a truth: the market for VR headsets is not trivial, but it is narrow and niche.

Did Apple and their cubicles full of analysts have access to market data that others did not?

It seems that Apple gambled that with an innovative product and a much broader set of applications, they could create a mass market for spatial computing. To Apple’s credit, their reputation for creating huge market demand is impressive when you consider products like the iPod, iPad, and iPhone, which have collectively shipped billions of units.

This year, however, Apple now expects to sell only about 450,000 Vision Pros, well below their first-year target of 800,000. Compare that to the 73 million Apple iPads sold in its first year.

The most striking thing on day one was the price of the Vision Pro. For example, with a starting price of $3500, this amount surpassed Meta’s headset, which sold for around $500. Sure, the features aren’t quite fair, but Apple’s price wasn’t even close.

A small market and a high price weren’t the only headwinds Apple faced.

Innovative technology is not enough for market success

By offering a wide range of compelling applications, Apple was betting that large numbers of people would embrace spatial computing for their daily work, learning and entertainment needs. For this to happen, a significant change in behavior was required. The evidence from other vendors just didn’t support this and it played out the same for Apple.

Not long after purchasing and getting over the novelty factor, many users began to wonder how they would be able to use the device. This was further compounded by the lack of Vision Pro-specific applications and media. Unsurprisingly, Apple experienced a large number of returns, with more than a few units showing up on sites like eBay.

The usually enthusiastic interest in a new Apple product also quickly waned, with social media mentions and Google searches plummeting within a few short weeks.

Another issue that was also difficult to overcome was the form factor. While it may be acceptable to wear a headset computer to play a game or exercise for a short period of time, putting on a headset for hours on end to surf the web or watch a movie isn’t compelling. . Many users reported that the headset didn’t offer a compelling upgrade over their traditional setups.

It also doesn’t help that the Vision Pro is heavy at 1.4 pounds. That’s a lot of weight to strap around your head without causing long-term discomfort. More than a few people have also reported health issues, including motion sickness, black eyes, headaches, and eyestrain from prolonged use. Many of these issues are common complaints with the VR headset modality.

What’s next for Spatial Computing and Vision Pro?

There’s a lot to like about Apple’s first-generation Vision Pro, and to be fair, it has a lot of enthusiastic users. Anyone who uses the device for the first time will quickly notice that the experience feels like a big step forward.

But Apple’s and other vendors’ sobering sales results clearly indicate that a mass market opportunity for spatial computing does not yet exist in its current form.

Good technology alone is not enough for market success.

Reports indicate that while Apple is not planning a follow-up to this model of Vision Pro, they are not giving up on spatial computing and a cheaper product with fewer features could hit the market within a year or two. By then, the market may be ready and the compelling applications will be more obvious.

For spatial computing to succeed in the mass market, it must solve problems and create experiences in a way that is affordable and in a form factor that is no more intrusive than wearing regular glasses.

However, first prize goes to the company that finally creates an immersive experience that doesn’t require a headgear.

Holodeck, anyone?