Week ahead: Round one for Biden versus Trump and the early elections in France

Hello and welcome to the work week.

Ding ding. Take your chances for the first debate of the US presidential election on Thursday – although with President Joe Biden and his challenger, former President Donald Trump, on stage it will look like a 2020 rematch. It will likely be the TikTok-compatible exchanges that attract the most attention among American voters. And as FT columnist Ed Luce writes from Washington, it’s not certain who has the most to lose or gain in this mother of all American verbal sparring matches. A truly remarkable fact is that the combined age of Biden and Trump is two-thirds the age of the country they are fighting over.

Not to be outdone, on the other side of the Atlantic, the two leading leadership candidates in the British election race will also battle it out on the BBC. Given the dire state of the polls for the Conservative party, and one poll even showing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak losing his seat, one wonders how useful this head-to-head will be in changing voters’ minds before the final week of the campaign. Could this be the most distorted result in British election history?

Meanwhile, voting will take place in France this week, with the first round of President Emmanuel Macron’s hastily called parliamentary elections on Sunday. Opinion polls suggest a strong performance for the far-right Rassemblement National. I recommend you read this FT explanation of the likely outcomes.

Away from politics, Paris has a chance to get excited about the arrival of the Olympic Games in the city as the final countdown begins with a month to go until the opening ceremony. In Britain, King Charles will host Japan’s Emperor Naruhito with a series of events in central London and Windsor, including a state banquet on Tuesday.

Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist Party, will have his case heard at the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal on Monday. Lai and six co-defendants are seeking to overturn their convictions for unlawful assembly following their involvement in a demonstration in August 2019. There are serious concerns about the state of the legal system in Hong Kong, as expressed in this powerful FT opinion piece by former Court of Appeal judge Jonathan Sumption, who resigned earlier this month as a non-permanent foreign judge along with Lawrence Collins judge in the court of appeal. .

Corporate earnings opened up again this week, with retail in particular being the dominant theme H&M, Walgreens Boots Alliance And Halfordsplus Nike And FedEx. Also look out for a strategy update from Lloyds Banking Group on Thursday. In addition, we will mark the passing of two more companies from the UK stock market. For an informed opinion on the debate over London’s future as a capital-raising engine, read this.

The economic data run is led by definitive insights on first-quarter GDP in the US and Britain, plus a few surveys and speeches from central bankers. Read more below.

One more thing . . .

Do you watch the footie? As an England fan, I can confirm that this is best done with friends, if only to give you a perspective on life that is more than just football. God help you if you watch England games in a different way. The FT has its own opinion on whether we have too much of the sport.

Wednesday marks the 28th anniversary of the Euro ’96 semi-final between England and Germany at Wembley Stadium. The teams played out a 1–1 draw before a goalless extra time and a subsequent penalty shootout, in which Gareth Southgate missed the Three Lions’ crucial sixth penalty, allowing Andreas Möller to score the winning goal. I probably don’t need to tell you that Southgate is now England manager, nor perhaps that his side’s final group match is on Tuesday. Make sure you find a safe place to watch.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Personally, I’m going to be away from the office for the next seven days, enjoy some post-exam time with my eldest, and then take my middle child on college open day trips. I leave you in the very capable hands of my colleague David Hindley and will be back in a fortnight.

Economic and business reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of business reports and economic data.

Monday

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give an online presentation to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce entitled Workers, Jobs, Growth and Inflation – Today and Tomorrow, which will be followed by a press call.

• Tui group The shares are expected to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange, following shareholder approval at the company’s AGM in February.

• USA: Annual IMF audit of the US economy

Tuesday

• Germany: monthly data on construction orders

• Results: Carnival Q2, FedEx Q4, Saga AGM trading statement

Wednesday

• Australia: May consumer price index (CPI) inflation data

• US: Federal Reserve releases its annual stress test results for banks

• Results: AO World For information, General Mills Q4, Liontrust Asset Management For information, Micron technology Q3, PayChex Q4, Volex FJ

Thursday

• IndividuallyThe transfer of the primary listing to the US will take effect, following shareholder approval at a general meeting in May.

• Australia: May labor market statistics

• UK: Bank of England report on the stability of the UK financial system

• US: Final first quarter GDP figures

• Results: Bunzl trade declaration, Halfords For information, Curries For information, H&M HE, Lloyds Banking Group strategy update, Moon pig For information, James Latham For information, Nike Q4, Serco HE, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3, Watches from Switzerland FJ

Friday

• Central Banking Series of the Global Interdependence Center: Paris. Speakers incl Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau.

• EU: European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey

• Germany: May labor market statistics

• New Zealand: Matariki. Financial markets closed.

• UK: Final first quarter GDP figures plus Zoopla’s house price index

• US: May personal income and expenditure data

• Results: File FJ

World events

Here’s a look at other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Hong Kong: Hearing at the Court of Final Appeal for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist Party.

• USA: Genaro García Luna, former Mexican Minister of Public Security, is sentenced in a New York courtroom following his conviction for continuing criminal enterprise, conspiracy to distribute narcotics, conspiracy to import narcotics and making false statements.

Tuesday

• China: The 15th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum’s new champions kicks off in Dalian and runs until Thursday.

• France: TV debate ahead of voting in the French parliamentary elections, pitting Prime Minister Gabriel Attal against National Rally president Jordan Bardella and left-wing alliance leader Manuel Bompard.

• UK: King Charles and Queen Camilla officially welcome Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako during their state visit. A day in London ends with a state banquet at Buckingham Palace.

• US: Conviction in a Miami courtroom of former British Virgin Islands Prime Minister Andrew Fahie, convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and others charges.

Wednesday

• Russia: The hearing in the legal proceedings against Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich will begin in secret.

• UK: BBC hosts a live election debate in Nottingham between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and leader of the opposition Labor Party Sir Keir Starmer. In addition, the Glastonbury Festival of music and arts will open in the fields near Pilton, Somerset, where around 200,000 people are expected.

• US: The Rim of the Pacific 2024 (Rimpac 24) military exercise begins, with 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel participating in the biennial exercise, hosted this year in Honolulu, Hawaii . This runs until August 2.

Thursday

• EU: European Council of Heads of State or Government, chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.

• UK: Trainee doctors in England begin a five-day strike as part of the British Medical Association’s ongoing dispute with the government over pay.

• US: CNN will host the first televised presidential debate of the presidential election campaign, between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Friday

Saturday

• Italy: 111th cycling race of the Tour de France starts with stage one, which starts in Florence this year.

• Mauritania: presidential elections

Sunday

• Canada: Princess Anne visits St. John’s for the centennial commemoration events of the Newfoundland National War Memorial and the reburial of the remains of an unknown Newfoundland soldier from the First World War.

• EU: The six-month Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union ends. Hungary will take over tomorrow.

• France: first round of voting in the country’s early parliamentary elections