For some in New Jersey, sea level rise is never far from their minds.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is offering readers an interactive tool to see what future rising temperatures could mean for ice melting and, by extension, rising ocean levels along the Jersey Shore and beyond.
“The increased CO2 emissions increase warming of the atmosphere and ocean, melting ice caps and glaciers on land and causing thermal expansion of the ocean, resulting in coastal sea level rise along most U.S. coastlines” , William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer, told NJ Advance Media. on Wednesday.
In 2022, a report from NOAA noted that it is increasingly likely that sea levels along the country’s coasts will rise at least 2 feet by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change.
Emission trajectories to date, a NOAA spokesperson said this week, predict that by 2100, sea levels will rise by about 8 to 1.5 feet.
The agency’s interactive tool is constantly updated to present the latest scenarios.
NOAA’s online map illustrates what New Jersey could expect, such as in parts of the Jersey Shore that run parallel to the Atlantic Ocean – as well as inland.
Below is an image of the type of devastation a two-foot flood would cause in places like Tuckerton, Port Republic, Little Egg Harbor Township and Absecon.
Newly proposed regulations in New Jersey would require new structures to be built five feet higher than existing flood elevations set by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA.
A 5-foot rise in sea level would flood Holly Park, Cedar Beach and much of Ocean Gate, the instrument shows. In Toms River, even places some distance from the nearest waterway, such as Camelot and Parkway Manor, would be flooded.
Down on the Jersey Shore, towns like Margate, Ventnor and Brigantine would be submerged on both sides by rising water – from small nearby bays and the ocean.
Problems would also be significant in the north, with areas bordering the Hudson River (such as Jersey City, Hoboken and Weehawken) also facing flooding problems and sea level rise.
Sweet said viewers at the local level can use NOAA’s 2050 sea level rise trajectories and the 2100 rise scenarios from the federal sea level rise report from two years ago “along with maps to better understand which land and infrastructure are increasingly at risk to climate change.” episodic flooding and more permanent flooding.”
Housing and flooding
Between 1911 and 2019, sea levels in New Jersey along the state’s coast have already risen 15 feet — compared to half a foot at global mean sea level, according to experts at Rutgers University.
“We will see more rapid sea level rise in the future if we continue to release greenhouse gas emissions,” Robert Kopp, a climate scientist and professor in Rutgers’ Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, said Wednesday afternoon of the challenges ahead. .
Kopp said cutting those emissions would pay off late this century and beyond, but notable sea level rise is already expected in the next 20 years.
“That means we have to adapt to sea level rise,” he said, discussing the significant amount of development on the state’s coast. “When we think about things like land use. When we think about things like infrastructure. We need to plan for sea levels and the climate of the coming decades.”
A Rutgers analysis provided to NJ Advance Media also outlined the following for what potential future flooding could mean for renters and homeowners:
- Of the more than 3 million parcels of land in New Jersey as of February 2024, more than 307,000 were in the 100-year floodplain – in other words, those properties that have a 1 in 100 (or 1%) chance of being flooded each year. to stand.
- In that 100-year scenario, more than 224,345 homes are at risk (out of more than 2.4 million homes).
- New Jersey parcels at risk under the 100-year flood scenario have a total net assessed value of more than $250 billion – of which approximately $156 billion is residential
Sweet said at NOAA that New Jersey in particular is also experiencing above-average sea level rise due to factors such as the number of tropical and northeasterly storms it faces, as well as “land subsidence,” the slow settling or sudden sinking. of the Earth’s surface associated with the last ice age.
For more insights on what sea level rise could mean in your part of New Jersey, explore NOAA’s map at Coast.noaa.gov/slr.