General election 2024: UK economy to flatten in April, official figures show

The British economy flattened in April, according to official figures used by government critics as evidence that the Conservatives’ announced plan is not working.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was zero growth in April compared to the 0.4% recorded in March.

A poll of economists from the Reuters news agency had forecast a 0% performance, based on earlier evidence that wet weather had hit retail sales and construction output particularly hard.

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The ONS’s GDP (gross domestic product) report – the last to be published ahead of the election – showed that total rainfall in Britain in April was 155% of the long-term average.

As a result, construction production appeared to have fallen by 1.4%, the calculators said, partly helped by weak demand for construction products in the manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing fell by 0.9%, while the services sector – which accounts for almost 80% of total UK output – grew by just 0.2%.

Despite the emphasis on the impact of the rain, the figures are still a setback to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s main election argument that the economy is improving after successive hits from the COVID pandemic, followed by the cost of living crisis.

Britain emerged from a short-lived recession at the end of 2023, when growth of 0.6% was recorded in the first quarter of the current year.

While economists continue to see growth in the three months through June, expectations are for growth of around 0.3% – half the rate achieved between January and March.

There will be a final set of inflation figures ahead of election day on July 4, followed by an interest rate decision from the Bank of England the next day.

Financial markets and economists see little chance of a rate cut, especially as wages are rising at a pace that risks fueling price growth even further after significant progress in the fight against inflation.

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the ONS data: ‘Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stalled and there is no growth.

“These figures expose the damage done by fourteen years of conservative chaos.

‘We are now in the third week of this general election campaign and during that time the Labor Party has set out its plan to grow the economy by returning stability, attracting private sector investment and overhauling our planning system. reform.

“All the Conservatives have to offer is more of the same, with a desperate wish list of unfunded spending promises that will mean £4,800 more for people’s mortgages. Rishi Sunak’s plan is a recipe for another five years of Tory chaos.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said the lack of growth in April showed the Tories had “completely failed” to deliver on their promises.

“As Rishi Sunak’s time as Prime Minister comes to an end, Britain’s economic growth is also slowing,” she said.

“The Conservatives have completely failed to deliver the growth they repeatedly promised, instead presiding over stagnation and economic misery for hardworking families across the country.

‘The Conservatives’ manifesto shows that they simply do not have the ambition and vision to get the economy going again.

“It is clear to voters across the country that the only way to make this happen is to vote them out of office on July 4.”

Commenting on the outlook, Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “Forward-looking indicators point to renewed momentum in activity in the coming months, supported by an improvement in consumer confidence as wage growth remains strong.

‘The general election in early summer could help resolve political uncertainties, boosting business investment.

“Nonetheless, whichever party wins the election will face a number of supply-side challenges that will limit Britain’s long-term growth potential.

“We expect economic activity to remain historically sluggish this year, with growth of just 0.5%.”