The IEA report shows that countries’ ambitions and implementation plans are not yet in line with the key objectives of COP28, but that governments have tools to go further in the coming months through the NDC process
A new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that in the coming months countries have a significant opportunity to develop clear plans to boost renewable energy, which could move the world closer to achieving the COP28 target of to triple capacity by 2030.
COP28 Tripling the Renewable Capacity Promise: Tracking Countries’ Ambitions and Identifying Policies to Close the Gap, published today, finds that while renewable energy is at the heart of achieving international energy and climate goals, very few countries have explicitly set 2030 targets for installed capacity in their existing Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, under the Paris Agreement. Official commitments in NDCs currently stand at 1,300 gigawatts (GW) – just 12% of what is needed to meet the global tripling target set in Dubai.
However, a new country-by-country analysis by the IEA – covering almost 150 countries worldwide – shows that governments’ domestic ambitions go much further, equivalent to almost 8,000 GW of globally installed renewable capacity by 2030. This means that if countries were to incorporate all their existing policies, plans and estimates into their new NDCs due next year – which will include revised ambitions for 2030 and new targets for 2035 – they would reflect 70% of what is needed by 2030 to reach the tripling target reaching 11,000 GW of installed renewable capacity worldwide.
This suggests that there is ample room for countries to align their NDCs with their current domestic ambitions – although the report emphasizes that countries also need to accelerate implementation. At the same time, countries must take their ambitions to the next level to align with the tripling target.
“At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity this decade, one of the crucial actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This report makes clear that tripling the target is ambitious but achievable – but only if governments quickly translate promises into action plans,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “By achieving the goals agreed at COP28 – including tripling renewable energy sources and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 – countries around the world have a great opportunity to accelerate progress towards a safer, more affordable and accelerate a more sustainable energy system. The IEA will continue to support governments around the world in their efforts to achieve this.”
More and more countries are turning to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, following a sharp drop in costs over the past decade and renewed efforts by governments to build resilient energy systems with lower emissions. According to the report, the amount of renewable capacity added annually worldwide has tripled since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. This is largely due to policy support, economies of scale and technological advances, which have lowered the cost of solar energy and increased wind energy by over 40% over the same period, making it widely competitive with fossil fuels. Global renewable capacity expansion reached nearly 560 GW in 2023, an unprecedented 64% year-on-year increase from 2022, with China being by far the largest contributor.
At the same time, significant challenges remain, from long wait times for project permits, inadequate investment in grid infrastructure, the need to integrate variable renewable energy sources quickly and cost-efficiently, and high financing costs, especially in emerging and developing economies. The report proposes targeted actions that countries can take to address these obstacles. For example, in terms of reducing financing costs to improve the bankability of renewable projects, approaches such as improving long-term policy visibility are suggested; supporting projects in the pre-development phase; and reducing price, inflation and exchange rate risks.
The IEA played a key role in shaping the landmark energy package agreed at COP28, and the Agency continues to closely monitor progress towards these commitments – even as countries prepare to deliver on the next round of NDCs in the framework of the Paris Agreement. With its data, analysis and policy recommendations, the IEA, at the request of governments, aims to advance this next crucial phase in the implementation of the Paris Agreement.