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The writer is author of ‘Black Wave’, distinguished fellow at Columbia University’s Institute of Global Politics and a contributing editor to FT
During his visit to Israel after the October 7 Hamas attacks, US President Joe Biden hugged Benjamin Netanyahu tightly as he expressed his full support for a grieving nation.
Critics argued that this was a dangerous blank check. But senior US officials insisted the hug would allow Biden to advise Netanyahu and shape Israel’s military campaign.
It may have delayed the initial Israeli ground invasion of Gaza and limited major regional impacts, and it has so far spared Lebanon a full-scale Israeli military campaign – but that is no relief for the Palestinians suffering in Gaza and for the families of the remaining Israeli hostages.
In the eight months since, Biden has tried to cajole, cajole and pressure Netanyahu to participate in discussions about the day after. The White House set deadlines and even red lines – all of which faded. Biden’s critics on the left say he has never exerted real influence. The right denounced him for blocking even one shipment of weapons to Israel.
On Friday, Biden finally deployed the other piece of political capital he amassed when he went to Israel in October — high approval from Israelis grateful for his support. Biden went over Netanyahu and addressed the Israeli people directly in what was the most important part of his speech.
“Let me say this to the people of Israel. . . I ask you to take a step back and think about what will happen if this moment is lost. We cannot lose this moment,” he said. “An indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified idea of total victory will only bog down Israel in Gaza.”
Biden warned of Israel’s increasing isolation in the world. Most importantly, by talking about possible calm on the border with Lebanon and the prospect of normalization with Saudi Arabia, he offered a positive path forward for a country whose mood has increasingly darkened amid strategic deviations, external pressure and internal divisions.
It is estimated that at least 100,000 Israelis protested in Tel Aviv this weekend, with many holding up signs saying: “Take the deal” and “Biden save [the hostages] of Netanyahu.”
Frustration with Netanyahu was evident in the way the US government choreographed what followed Biden’s statement: an immediate chorus of voices in support of his message, including former President Barack Obama and the leaders of the G7, and a series of calls to regional allies. There was even an unusual joint statement in which Egypt and Qatar called on both Hamas and Israel to finalize the deal.
Crucially, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the ministers in Netanyahu’s own war cabinet, Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, and all but suggested a fait accompli by praising “Israel’s willingness to make a deal.”
Much of the commentary focused on whether this was indeed an Israeli proposal, as Biden stated. But it’s a moot point. This is the deal that the American president has now put on the table, along with his credibility. Many details remain to be worked out, including the thorniest: how to move from the first phase of a ceasefire to a final cessation of hostilities.
Netanyahu’s far-right ministers have threatened to resign. Another minister rejected the deal, saying: “No surrender, not to American pressure, to nothing.”
In June 1982, a few days after Israel invaded Lebanon, Amos Oz, the Israeli writer and peace activist, wrote about Menachem Begin’s approach to diplomacy. “Never before has Israel been attacked by an almost daily bombardment of plans for agreements, proposed solutions, proposals for peace. . . The Begin government responds to all of them as if on an evil barrage from Katyusha [rockets].”
Four decades later, these words still ring true. Netanyahu will have to choose between rejecting the US president to save his right-wing coalition or accepting the deal for the sake of the hostages and his country’s long-term strategic interest. In theory, he could survive politically by forming a new broad coalition. He was able to gain time by accepting phase one and abandoning phase two. Hamas could do that too. Washington believes Netanyahu will find a way to accept the deal. Much now depends on the response of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza.
More than just the latest version of a possible plan, Biden’s proposal is the last option to find a way out of the dark tunnel of war.